If you’ve been watching the real estate market in the San Francisco Bay Area — especially in Lamorinda — you’ve probably asked yourself: “Is it still worth it to buy right now?” With interest rates stubbornly high and home prices remaining strong, the rent-vs-buy conversation feels more relevant than ever.
Renting: More Flexible, More Affordable (for Now)
In much of the Bay Area, monthly rents — while not cheap — can still come in significantly lower than what a mortgage payment would look like with today’s 7% rates. That’s especially true in Lamorinda, where a well-maintained 3-bedroom rental might run you $5,500–$6,500/month, while buying a similar home could push a mortgage well above $8,000/month once you factor in taxes and insurance.
For many families or individuals who aren’t quite ready to plant long-term roots or aren’t sure they’ll stay put for 5–10 years, renting offers flexibility and lower short-term financial pressure.
Buying: Long-Term Value, Short-Term Pain
Even in a high-rate environment, owning a home in places like Lafayette, Moraga, or Orinda still has long-term advantages. You’re building equity, gaining stability, and investing in a high-demand community with excellent schools and quality of life.
That said, the short-term hit is real. With today’s rates, monthly payments are significantly higher than what buyers were seeing just a few years ago, and jumbo loan limits are often exceeded here, requiring more upfront cash or private lending options. Buyers need to be financially prepared and emotionally ready for the ride.
Why Rates Are Still High (and What’s Holding Them There)
Even as inflation cools, mortgage rates have remained stubbornly high. Why?
Put simply: money is still expensive to borrow, and the market knows it.
The Lamorinda Effect: What’s Unique Here?
Lamorinda continues to be a high-demand micro-market, even in a cooler regional climate. Low inventory, desirable school districts, and a strong sense of community keep prices resilient. That means even if you can buy here, you’re competing for limited inventory — and the right home still goes quickly.
On the rental side, options are fewer and farther between, and seasonal demand (especially in the summer/fall for families relocating before school starts) can push rental prices higher.
Flip Side: What About Owning as an Investor?
As rental property owners ourselves, we’re constantly evaluating whether it still makes sense to hold or sell. With high home values and elevated rates, the math on investment properties is tighter than it used to be. Some long-time owners are cashing out — especially if they’re equity-rich and facing costly upgrades or turnover.
But in Lamorinda and similar markets, rental demand is steady, tenant quality is strong, and turnover is relatively low. That stability, combined with long-term appreciation potential, still makes ownership attractive — if your cost basis allows for healthy margins.
If you’re thinking about exiting a rental, doing a 1031 exchange, or shifting from active to passive management, it’s a good time to reassess. Every property tells a different story — and it may be time to turn the page or reinvest strategically.
The Bottom Line
If you’re debating whether to rent or buy in Lamorinda or the broader Bay Area, the answer comes down to your timeline, financial readiness, and personal goals. Renting might give you breathing room in the short term. Buying, especially in a community as stable and desirable as Lamorinda, still builds long-term value — but it takes planning and commitment.
And if you’re already an owner, especially of investment property, this could be the year to take a closer look at your portfolio. The best decisions often come from knowing when to hold — and when to pivot.
Source: https://reventureconsulting.com/report/buying-v-renting-dashboard/
Market Perspectives with William Tang: Nin Tang Homes’ (Unofficial) Chief Investment Advisor*
We’d love to connect and explore how you can make the most of today’s market. Let’s chat about your goals and the best opportunities for you!
As economic uncertainty lingers, there’s growing chatter among economists and investors about the potential return of stagflation—a rare but challenging economic condition where inflation remains high, economic growth stalls, and unemployment rises. It’s the economic version of being stuck between a rock and a hard place.
What Is Stagflation?
Stagflation combines two normally opposing forces: stagnant growth and inflation. Under typical circumstances, inflation and unemployment don’t rise together. But stagflation defies the rules—prices climb while economic activity slows, squeezing consumers and businesses alike. The last major period of stagflation was in the 1970s, triggered by oil shocks, loose monetary policy, and structural shifts in the economy. Today, some similar warning signs are emerging: supply chain disruptions, elevated consumer prices, geopolitical tensions, and labor market imbalances. A recent indicator of this pressure: U.S. real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, down sharply from the 2.4% growth in the fourth quarter of 2024. That reversal in momentum suggests the economy may be slowing just as prices remain high—a classic stagflation red flag.
Why the Fed Can’t Solve Both Problems at Once
The Federal Reserve has two primary tools—raising or lowering interest rates—to steer the economy. But stagflation presents a dilemma:
In a stagflationary scenario, trying to fix one issue may worsen the other. If the Fed raises rates to tame inflation, it could deepen the slowdown and drive unemployment higher. If it lowers rates to boost employment, inflation could spiral further out of control.
The Real Estate Crossroads
So, what does stagflation mean for real estate?
Real estate is often viewed as a hedge against inflation—property values and rental income tend to rise with consumer prices, preserving purchasing power over time. For long-term investors, that’s good news.
But there’s a catch.
If the Fed raises interest rates to combat inflation, mortgage rates will climb, making homeownership more expensive and cooling demand. This can lead to slower price growth—or even price declines in overheated markets. Investors relying on debt to finance properties may also face tighter margins.
Navigating What Comes Next
Whether or not we enter a full-blown stagflationary period remains to be seen. But the risk is real enough to warrant attention. For real estate professionals, homeowners, and investors, now is the time to focus on fundamentals: strong location, steady cash flow, and a long-term perspective.
In uncertain times, clarity comes not just from predictions—but from preparation. Have questions about what this means for you? Let’s chat!
Market Perspectives with William Tang: Nin Tang Homes’ (Unofficial) Chief Investment Advisor*
We’d love to connect and explore how you can make the most of today’s market. Let’s chat about your goals and the best opportunities for you!
The stock market has been on a rollercoaster lately. After a steep drop that began in late February, we saw a massive rebound on Wednesday—the biggest jump in the S&P (nearly +10%) in over a decade—driven by the President’s announcement of a temporary pause on tariffs. That said, the volatility may not be over. These tariff moves feel less like long-term policy and more like short-term negotiating tactics, especially with countries like China where retaliatory tit for tat tariffs are still ongoing. It’s starting to feel like a high-stakes game of chicken between two economic giants—and neither side is swerving.
This uncertainty has pushed interest rates to their lowest levels since October, as investors moved into safer options like Treasuries and bonds. But as the stock market rallied midweek, the 10 year treasury interest rate began to climb again. With volatility at extreme levels, some investors may seek to raise cash—whether through selling stocks or even real estate—to weather the storm.
So, what does this mean for real estate? We may be seeing the early signs of a shift—from a strong seller’s market to one that’s more balanced, or even starting to favor buyers. Homes for sale inventory is up in the Bay Area compared to recent years, and with continued tariff uncertainty, that trend may continue.
For buyers who’ve been waiting for the right moment, this could be it. Keep an eye on the 10-year Treasury and mortgage rates. If they continue to move downward in response to broader market weakness, it could boost purchasing power—and open the door to better deals and more room for negotiation.
Have questions about what this means for you? Let’s chat!
Market Perspectives with William Tang: Nin Tang Homes’ (Unofficial) Chief Investment Advisor*
We’d love to connect and explore how you can make the most of today’s market. Let’s chat about your goals and the best opportunities for you!
During the pandemic, we saw an unprecedented spending boom fueled by near 0% interest rates, making borrowing incredibly cheap. This easy access to money drove spending across all sectors—including real estate—into overdrive. In affluent areas like Lamorinda, where buyers typically have strong credit and healthy financials, this low-rate environment sent home prices soaring.
But that economic surge couldn’t last forever. When inflation spiraled out of control, the Fed stepped in aggressively, introducing its first 75bps rate hike in nearly 30 years. Fast forward to today, and 30-year mortgage rates sit close to 7%—a big jump from the sub-2% rates seen during the pandemic. While this may seem high by recent standards, historically, 7% is actually closer to the norm—it was the ultra-low pandemic rates that were the real outlier.
In markets like Lamorinda, we don’t expect dramatic shifts in turnover. Many homeowners locked in historically low mortgage rates during the pandemic, creating a kind of "golden handcuffs" situation. Selling now would mean trading a 2% mortgage for a 7% one, which isn’t exactly appealing. This could keep housing inventory tight, as fewer homeowners will be eager to list.
On the flip side, buyers face their own challenges. Higher interest rates mean higher mortgage payments, and since lenders rely on debt-to-income ratios, borrowing power is more limited. This puts pressure on affordability and demand, particularly for higher-priced homes.
For now, we anticipate the market will remain steady, with fewer homes hitting the market. Those who do sell will likely be downsizing, relocating for affordability, or moving out of state. Until we see a major shift in interest rates, this "wait and see" dynamic will likely continue.
Have questions about what this means for you? Let’s chat!
Market Perspectives with William Tang: Nin Tang Homes’ (Unofficial) Chief Investment Advisor*
We’d love to connect and explore how you can make the most of today’s market. Let’s chat about your goals and the best opportunities for you!
I’ve always been fascinated by interest rates—they influence so much more than we realize. Over time, I’ve come to see how they shape everything from the growth of companies we work for to everyday financial decisions like buying a home or taking out a loan. While my background isn’t in macroeconomics, I’ve gained enough insight to understand how these changes impact our lives. Based on research from various sources, including Compass’ Chief Economist, here are some key takeaways:
On the jobs front:
For now, we’re in a wait-and-see mode. I see rates holding steady until there’s a major shift in inflation or employment trends. Let me know if you’d like to chat more about how this affects real estate or your own family plans!
Market Perspectives with William Tang: Nin Tang Homes’ (Unofficial) Chief Investment Advisor*
We’d love to connect and explore how you can make the most of today’s market. Let’s chat about your goals and the best opportunities for you!
What questions do you have about your "Home" Market?
I am not a certified financial planner, economist, or Fortune Teller. The thoughts on this page are my opinions and my opinions only—formed through personal experience, research, and a borderline unhealthy obsession with interest rates. Take them with a grain of salt (or a whole salt shaker), and always consult a professional before making big financial moves - William Tang (Husband, Family Finance guy, Real Estate enthusiast)
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