Lamorinda Real Estate Snapshot – Fall 2025
As we move through fall, the Lamorinda real estate market is showing steady footing even as broader economic trends continue to evolve.
Rates and Market Sentiment
Mortgage rates in early October hovered around 6.3%, largely unchanged from September but well below the 7% range seen earlier in 2025. The Federal Reserve’s modest 0.25% rate cut had little immediate effect (mortgage rates typically adjust in anticipation of a rate cut, well before the FED makes its formal decision), though additional cuts are expected before year-end. Inflation ticked up slightly, and while stock markets reached record highs, consumer confidence remains cautious—especially among middle-income households. That said, Lamorinda’s market continues to benefit from affluent buyers who are less impacted by short-term rate fluctuations.
Local Market Trends
In Lamorinda—encompassing Lafayette, Moraga, and Orinda—September brought a notable increase in the number of sales year-over-year. Inventory levels also rose, signaling that more homeowners are choosing to list. Despite this uptick in activity, median sales values held steady, roughly on par with Q3 2024.
Market indicators like absorption rate and average days on market suggest a slightly softer, more balanced environment—a shift toward a “cooler” market as we move deeper into autumn. This moderation aligns with seasonal norms, as activity typically tapers off heading into the holiday months.
Price per Square Foot
The average dollar per square foot across Lamorinda dipped slightly in Q3 2025, coming in around $775, down from Q2’s $842, as well as 2024 Q3’s $852. As the chart above illustrates, values remain well below the Q2 2022 peak, but overall pricing has shown general stability over the past several quarters.
It’s worth noting that part of the softening in $/sq.ft. may reflect a shift in the types of homes hitting the market. We’re seeing more long-held, older properties—often in original condition—coming up for sale as longtime owners downsize or move on. These “fixer” homes naturally trade at lower prices per square foot, which can skew regional averages even as demand for move-in-ready homes stays robust.
Looking Ahead
October data will offer more clarity on how buyers and sellers are adapting to current conditions. With steady prices, moderate inventory growth, and mortgage rates likely to ease further into winter, Lamorinda appears positioned for a healthy, balanced market heading into 2026.
Market Perspectives with William Tang: Nin Tang Homes’ (Unofficial) Chief Investment Advisor*